Hurricane_Hilary

Hurricane Hilary was a large, potent Category 4 Pacific hurricane in August 2023 which brought torrential rainfall and gusty winds to the Pacific Coast of Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula and the Southwestern United States, resulting in widespread flooding and numerous mudslides. Hilary broke records in four U.S. states for wettest tropical cyclone or its remnants.
The eighth named storm, sixth hurricane, and fourth major hurricane of the 2023 Pacific hurricane season, Hilary originated from a disturbance south of Mexico associated with a tropical wave that entered the Pacific Ocean from Central America on August 12. The disturbance gradually grew more organized, and was named Tropical Storm Hilary while off the coast of Manzanillo, Colima, on August 16. Hilary quickly strengthened into a hurricane the next day. While tracking west-northwestward on August 17 and 18, it underwent rapid intensification, reaching its peak as a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 145 mph (235 km/h) and a central pressure of 939 mbar (27.7 inHg). The cyclone then quickly weakened the following day due to the effects of cooler sea surface temperatures, drier air, and increasing wind shear. After weakening into a tropical storm, Hilary made landfall in San Quintín, Baja California, at 18:00 UTC on August 20, about 215 mi (345 km) south-southeast of San Diego, California. It then tracked northward into California, retaining its tropical characteristics through the morning of August 21. It then transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone while over the southern San Joaquin Valley. Hilary was the first tropical storm to enter California since Nora in 1997.In anticipation of "catastrophic and life-threatening flooding", the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued its first-ever tropical storm warning for Southern California, extending from the Mexico–United States border to just north of Los Angeles. Persistent heavy rainfall, potentially "more than a year’s worth of rain" in some areas, was forecasted. Due to this, flood watches were issued, affecting about 26 million people across four states (Arizona, California, Nevada, and Utah), and the entire region was placed under a high risk threat for flash flooding by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC).Two fatalities, both in Mexico, have been linked to Hilary. Additionally, the storm left behind flooded roads, mudslides and downed trees in the Baja California peninsula and in Southern California. Even so, its overall impact on the region was less severe than initially feared.

# Meteorological history

On August 12, a tropical wave traversing Central America producing widespread rain showers and thunderstorms entered the far eastern Pacific. A broad area of low pressure developed within the wave on August 14, off the southern coasts of Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador [13]. The disturbance gradually became better organised during the following day, and a well-defined circulation along with developing convective banding features were observed on the morning of August 16, thus prompting the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to classify it as Tropical Storm Hilary [14]. Convection near the storm's center increased throughout the day, dense overcast started to develop over the growing storm as a result, and an eye began to form at its center [15]. Consequently, Hilary quickly strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane by 12:00 UTC on August 17, while located about 320 mi (515 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Colima [16]. Deep convection intensified beneath the system's cloud tops, which had cooled to below −112 °F (−80 °C), and its expanding upper-level outflow pattern became symmetric [17]. Hilary continued to rapidly intensify, reaching Category 4 strength at 06:00 UTC on August 18 [18]. By 15:00 UTC that day, Hilary's intensity leveled off with peak sustained winds at 145 mph (230 km/h), an increase of 80 mph (130 km/h) over a 24‑hour period. Hilary benefited from exceptional conditions during its intensification phase, with sea-surface temperatures of near 86 °F (30 °C), low wind shear, and high relative humidity levels [20]. A hurricane hunter flight later that day confirmed that Hilary was a Category 4 hurricane, though not as strong as expected, with maximum sustained winds determined to be at 130 mph (215 km/h) [21]. The hurricane initially tracked west-northwestward, then toward the northwest during this time, responding to the steering influences of a trough of low pressure to its north near the California coast and a ridge of high pressure over the central United States [22]. As those influences began drawing Hilary north-northwestward on the morning of August 19, asymmetrical convective patterns developed as the deep convection on the west side of the system was being eroded by an intrusion of dry and stable air [18] [20] [21]. This caused the hurricane to weaken to Category 3 strength, with winds of 125 mph (205 km/h). By the end of that day, the hurricane had dropped to Category 1 as a result of the adverse effects of cooler waters, drier air, and increasing shear [23]. At around 10:30 UTC the eye of the storm briefly touched the mainland at Punta Eugenia, Baja California Sur, before passing over the nearby inhabited islands of Natividad and Cedros [24]. Hilary made landfall at around 18:00 UTC on August 20, with sustained winds of 65 mph (105 km/h) in San Quintín, Baja California, or about 215 mi (345 km) south-southeast of San Diego, California. The storm continued to move north-northwestward after landfall, and crossed into California about six hours later, south-southwest of Palm Springs [26] [27]. Late that day, the storm's low-level center became increasingly diffused and more difficult to track, eventually briefly reconsolidating along the coast of south-central Los Angeles [28]. On the morning of August 21, while moving over the southern San Joaquin Valley, Hilary became a post-tropical cyclone. Its upper level remnants then tracked north into the Rocky Mountains due to a jet stream [29]. 

# Preparations

## Mexico

Heavy rains from the developing storm affected portions of southern and western Mexico. Coastal areas of Sinaloa recorded torrential rains from the hurricane's passage, with its first fatality reported on August 18 in Navolato when an SUV and its driver were washed away [21]. On August 28, the government of Baja California Sur calculated the damage statewide to be 250 million pesos (US$14.7 million) [8]. On the Baja California peninsula, nearly 1,900 people were evacuated to shelters. Torrential rainfall caused widespread flooding and landslides in Baja California Sur [41]. One man died in Santa Rosalía, when his vehicle was washed away by floodwaters. Officials in Baja California reported numerous mud and rock slides across the state along with several power outages [38]. 

## United States

According to catastrophe modeler Karen Clark & Company, insurance losses reached US$600 million across the Western United States. Damages in the US alone were estimated at US$675 million by professional services company Aon in October 2023 [94]. Wind gusts of up to 50 mph (80 km/h) were widespread across Southern California as Hilary passed through. The strongest gusts were recorded in Los Angeles County – 87 mph (140 km/h) at Magic Mountain, and San Diego County – 84 mph (135 km/h) at Big Black Mountain [29]. On August 20, downtown Los Angeles and San Diego each recorded its wettest single summer day on record (June through August) with 2.48 in (63 mm) and 1.82 in (46 mm) of precipitation respectively [96]. Palm Springs recorded 3.18 in (81 mm), also a single summer day record amount. Rainfall at Furnace Creek in Death Valley totaled 2.20 in (56 mm), setting a new single-day rainfall record; the amount was more than the annual average rainfall of 2.15 in (55 mm) [29]. The highest rain totals were recorded in the San Bernardino Mountains – 11.73 in (298 mm) at Raywood Flats, and the San Jacinto Mountains – 11.74 in (298 mm) at Mount San Jacinto [97]. In California, portions of I-8, I-10, I-15, SR 14, and the Pacific Coast Highway closed due to flooding and rockslides. All roads in Death Valley National Park were severely damaged by flash flooding, forcing a two-month shutdown of the entire park [77] [83] [98] [99]. Damage in the park surpassed $500 million [100] [101]. Floodwaters entered Eisenhower Medical Center in Rancho Mirage, but this did not impact operations there [102]. 9-1-1 lines were down in Palm Springs, Cathedral City, and Indio [103]. Vehicles were inundated in Palm Springs, and Coachella Valley [77]. Local states of emergency were declared in Palm Springs  and in Indio [103] [103]. A tornado warning was issued for Alpine and Descanso, in San Diego County [77]. Water rescues occurred across the San Diego area [104]. At least 1,000 flights were cancelled and 3,700 were delayed across the region [41]. More than 5,000 customers were left without electricity according to the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power [86]. Also, an August 21 Major League Baseball game scheduled for Angel Stadium in Anaheim was postponed due to the wet conditions at the ballpark [105]. The storm spawned a tornado in Fresno, which damaged dozens of trees and buildings [106] [107]. The strongest winds beyond California primarily occurred in Nevada and Utah at high-elevation locations above 9,000 ft (2,700 m), with the weather station at Cardiff Pass (Utah) recording a gust of 75 mph (121 km/h). Records for wettest (total rainfall) tropical cyclones and their remnants were broken in four states: Idaho, Montana, Nevada, and Oregon [96]. The new mark in Nevada is more than double the previous record. The resulting flash flooding there forced the Spring Mountains National Recreation Area to close indefinitely [30]. Arizona received much less precipitation from Hilary than forecasted. In contrast to Nevada, where several locations received over 2 in (51 mm) of precipitation, only one did so in Arizona – Hilltop recorded (2.10 in (53 mm);  most places received less than 1 in (25 mm) [110] [96]. 

# Impact

## Mexico

Heavy rains from the developing storm affected portions of southern and western Mexico. Coastal areas of Sinaloa recorded torrential rains from the hurricane's passage, with its first fatality reported on August 18 in Navolato when an SUV and its driver were washed away [21]. On August 28, the government of Baja California Sur calculated the damage statewide to be 250 million pesos (US$14.7 million) [8]. On the Baja California peninsula, nearly 1,900 people were evacuated to shelters. Torrential rainfall caused widespread flooding and landslides in Baja California Sur [41]. One man died in Santa Rosalía, when his vehicle was washed away by floodwaters. Officials in Baja California reported numerous mud and rock slides across the state along with several power outages [38]. 

## United States

According to catastrophe modeler Karen Clark & Company, insurance losses reached US$600 million across the Western United States. Damages in the US alone were estimated at US$675 million by professional services company Aon in October 2023 [94]. Wind gusts of up to 50 mph (80 km/h) were widespread across Southern California as Hilary passed through. The strongest gusts were recorded in Los Angeles County – 87 mph (140 km/h) at Magic Mountain, and San Diego County – 84 mph (135 km/h) at Big Black Mountain [29]. On August 20, downtown Los Angeles and San Diego each recorded its wettest single summer day on record (June through August) with 2.48 in (63 mm) and 1.82 in (46 mm) of precipitation respectively [96]. Palm Springs recorded 3.18 in (81 mm), also a single summer day record amount. Rainfall at Furnace Creek in Death Valley totaled 2.20 in (56 mm), setting a new single-day rainfall record; the amount was more than the annual average rainfall of 2.15 in (55 mm) [29]. The highest rain totals were recorded in the San Bernardino Mountains – 11.73 in (298 mm) at Raywood Flats, and the San Jacinto Mountains – 11.74 in (298 mm) at Mount San Jacinto [97]. In California, portions of I-8, I-10, I-15, SR 14, and the Pacific Coast Highway closed due to flooding and rockslides. All roads in Death Valley National Park were severely damaged by flash flooding, forcing a two-month shutdown of the entire park [77] [83] [98] [99]. Damage in the park surpassed $500 million [100] [101]. Floodwaters entered Eisenhower Medical Center in Rancho Mirage, but this did not impact operations there [102]. 9-1-1 lines were down in Palm Springs, Cathedral City, and Indio [103]. Vehicles were inundated in Palm Springs, and Coachella Valley [77]. Local states of emergency were declared in Palm Springs  and in Indio [103] [103]. A tornado warning was issued for Alpine and Descanso, in San Diego County [77]. Water rescues occurred across the San Diego area [104]. At least 1,000 flights were cancelled and 3,700 were delayed across the region [41]. More than 5,000 customers were left without electricity according to the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power [86]. Also, an August 21 Major League Baseball game scheduled for Angel Stadium in Anaheim was postponed due to the wet conditions at the ballpark [105]. The storm spawned a tornado in Fresno, which damaged dozens of trees and buildings [106] [107]. The strongest winds beyond California primarily occurred in Nevada and Utah at high-elevation locations above 9,000 ft (2,700 m), with the weather station at Cardiff Pass (Utah) recording a gust of 75 mph (121 km/h). Records for wettest (total rainfall) tropical cyclones and their remnants were broken in four states: Idaho, Montana, Nevada, and Oregon [96]. The new mark in Nevada is more than double the previous record. The resulting flash flooding there forced the Spring Mountains National Recreation Area to close indefinitely [30]. Arizona received much less precipitation from Hilary than forecasted. In contrast to Nevada, where several locations received over 2 in (51 mm) of precipitation, only one did so in Arizona – Hilltop recorded (2.10 in (53 mm);  most places received less than 1 in (25 mm) [110] [96]. 

## In popular culture

Hilary's push toward Southern California coincided with a 5.1 magnitude earthquake that struck north of Los Angeles near Ojai, California, along with numerous aftershocks. Only minor damage and no injuries were reported from the quakes. As a result, the term "hurriquake" trended on social media [111] [112]. 

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[106] https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/hurricane-hilary-forces-mlb-schedule-tweaks-angels-postpone-another-game-monday-night/amp/
[107] https://apnews.com/article/angels-reds-postponed-hilary-doubleheader-eaf6854626a4403ff7f486e3c0cfa241
[108] https://kmph.com/news/local/small-tornado-causes-major-damage-in-fresno-twister-fresno-county-temperance-olive-avenue-landed-power-pole-funnel-clouds-national-weather-service-hurricane-hilary-saturday-sunday-weekend
[110] https://www.nevadawilderness.org/spring_mountains_national_recreation_area_to_remain_closed
[111] https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-weather/2023/08/20/wheres-the-rain-how-hilary-has-impacted-arizona/70638348007/
[112] https://www.ktla.com/news/local-news/ventura-county-cleans-up-amid-aftershocks-of-magnitude-5-1-quake/
[113] https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/earthquakes/earthquake-shakes-parts-of-southern-california/3209652/
[114] https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/best-funniest-most-terrifying-memes-180139075.html
