/*
* QUANTCONNECT.COM - Democratizing Finance, Empowering Individuals.
* Lean Algorithmic Trading Engine v2.0. Copyright 2014 QuantConnect Corporation.
*
* Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
* you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
* You may obtain a copy of the License at http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
*
* Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
* distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
* WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
* See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
* limitations under the License.
*/
using System;
using System.Collections.Generic;
using QuantConnect.Data;
using QuantConnect.Indicators;
using QuantConnect.Interfaces;
namespace QuantConnect.Algorithm.CSharp
{
///
/// Regression algorithm to test the behaviour of ARMA versus AR models at the same order of differencing.
/// In particular, an ARIMA(1,1,1) and ARIMA(1,1,0) are instantiated while orders are placed if their difference
/// is sufficiently large (which would be due to the inclusion of the MA(1) term).
///
public class AutoRegressiveIntegratedMovingAverageRegressionAlgorithm : QCAlgorithm, IRegressionAlgorithmDefinition
{
private AutoRegressiveIntegratedMovingAverage _arima;
private AutoRegressiveIntegratedMovingAverage _ar;
private decimal _last;
public override void Initialize()
{
SetStartDate(2013, 1, 07);
SetEndDate(2013, 12, 11);
EnableAutomaticIndicatorWarmUp = true;
AddEquity("SPY", Resolution.Daily);
_arima = ARIMA("SPY", 1, 1, 1, 50);
_ar = ARIMA("SPY", 1, 1, 0, 50);
}
public override void OnData(Slice slice)
{
if (_arima.IsReady)
{
if (Math.Abs(_ar.Current.Value - _arima.Current.Value) > 1) // Difference due to MA(1) being included.
{
if (_arima.Current.Value > _last)
{
MarketOrder("SPY", 1);
}
else
{
MarketOrder("SPY", -1);
}
}
_last = _arima.Current.Value;
}
}
///
/// This is used by the regression test system to indicate if the open source Lean repository has the required data to run this algorithm.
///
public bool CanRunLocally { get; } = true;
///
/// This is used by the regression test system to indicate which languages this algorithm is written in.
///
public Language[] Languages { get; } = { Language.CSharp, Language.Python };
///
/// Data Points count of all timeslices of algorithm
///
public long DataPoints => 1893;
///
/// Data Points count of the algorithm history
///
public int AlgorithmHistoryDataPoints => 100;
///
/// This is used by the regression test system to indicate what the expected statistics are from running the algorithm
///
public Dictionary ExpectedStatistics => new Dictionary
{
{"Total Trades", "52"},
{"Average Win", "0.00%"},
{"Average Loss", "0.00%"},
{"Compounding Annual Return", "0.096%"},
{"Drawdown", "0.100%"},
{"Expectancy", "3.321"},
{"Net Profit", "0.089%"},
{"Sharpe Ratio", "0.798"},
{"Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio", "40.893%"},
{"Loss Rate", "24%"},
{"Win Rate", "76%"},
{"Profit-Loss Ratio", "4.67"},
{"Alpha", "-0.001"},
{"Beta", "0.008"},
{"Annual Standard Deviation", "0.001"},
{"Annual Variance", "0"},
{"Information Ratio", "-1.961"},
{"Tracking Error", "0.092"},
{"Treynor Ratio", "0.08"},
{"Total Fees", "$52.00"},
{"Estimated Strategy Capacity", "$32000000000.00"},
{"Lowest Capacity Asset", "SPY R735QTJ8XC9X"},
{"Fitness Score", "0"},
{"Kelly Criterion Estimate", "0"},
{"Kelly Criterion Probability Value", "0"},
{"Sortino Ratio", "1.266"},
{"Return Over Maximum Drawdown", "1.622"},
{"Portfolio Turnover", "0"},
{"Total Insights Generated", "0"},
{"Total Insights Closed", "0"},
{"Total Insights Analysis Completed", "0"},
{"Long Insight Count", "0"},
{"Short Insight Count", "0"},
{"Long/Short Ratio", "100%"},
{"Estimated Monthly Alpha Value", "$0"},
{"Total Accumulated Estimated Alpha Value", "$0"},
{"Mean Population Estimated Insight Value", "$0"},
{"Mean Population Direction", "0%"},
{"Mean Population Magnitude", "0%"},
{"Rolling Averaged Population Direction", "0%"},
{"Rolling Averaged Population Magnitude", "0%"},
{"OrderListHash", "cf43585a8d1781f04b53a4f1ee3380cb"}
};
}
}